Guild Wars Guild

[qdnto15z]

Close your eyes, relax and then let these thoughts soak in:

"It's Never Been This Bad.."

These are the most expensive words I have known in my career. As we tend to do during times of stress, we
may have forgotten from whence we have come. Don't make this mistake.

In 1982, President Reagan was perceived [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] as an idiot for cutting taxes, driving deficits to levels then never seen before and suggesting "the benefits would trickle down" to the rest of the country. Inflation was 15.5%, the
prime rate was 20%, unemployment was nearly 10% (again) and gold hit $850 an ounce driven by rampant fear as mortgages rose above 17%!

The Dow closed at 970 on my first Friday in the investment business. The general theme from smart investors
at the time was simple and to the point:

"Mike, you don't understand, it [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] has never been this bad."

Later in the early 90's, when we had [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] our last banking and real estate driven [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] collapse, we lost over 1500 banks
and S&Ls, unemployment rose to [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] nearly 8%, politicians were under fire, interest rates were 9% and [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] inflation
was 5.5%.

At its low point in the early 90's, the Dow hit near [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] 2300, still almost 3 times higher than in 1982 back when "it
had never been this bad.".

[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] The general theme from smart investors at the time was again:

"Mike, you don't understand, it has never been this bad."

Today, the deficits are so high we struggle to get our brains around same. Inflation, [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] well, it is battling hard with
deflation. Interest rates are near zero, mortgages are 4%, household income is [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] at record highs, profit margins
are at record highs, cash on balance sheets is at record highs, costs of debt for growth is near record lows,
forward earnings are [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] approaching record highs, gold is bantered about hourly and is approaching $1,400 even as unemployment rates are once again near 10%.

The Dow is fluttering around 11,500, almost 5 times higher than in the early 90's and nearly 12 times higher
[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] than in the early 80's!!!

Yet, in the midst [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] of it all, until just the [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] last few weeks, the over-riding theme from smart investors has been, as
you may have guessed:

"Mike, you don't [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] understand, it has never been this bad."

Three Good Lessons I've Learned Since 1982:

First, "It" has been much worse.

Second, the future is always cloudy.

Third, sometimes you are ahead, sometimes you are behind. The race is long-and in the end, it is only against yourself.